Watch replay of DoJ Live Nation Ticketmaster Anti-trust announcement hereThe United States Justice Department is expected to announce an antitrust action today at 11 AM ET that could lead to the breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster. You can watch it live here.....
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Beyoncé sued for alleged copyright infringement over sample on ‘Break My Soul’A group of former musicians in New Orleans say 'Break My Soul' infringed their copyright by way of a sample from Big Freedia
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MIDiA Research 2024-2031 global music forecasts | Rise of the Global SouthIt appears to be the time of year for music forecasts. Today MIDiA is proud to announce the release of our global music forecasts report, which marks the tenth year of us doing these! The full 75+ page report and 40+ page datasheet for 45+ countries and regions, is available to MIDiA clients and for purchase here. And for the first time, we have also created a public page for the forecasts where you can watch a video of the music forecasts team talking about some of the big themes, and there’s a free summary report to download too. Of course, data without context are just numbers, so here follows some of the key themes and thinking that underpins MIDiA’s music forecasts.

First off, just to showcase our ‘creds’, this is how our forecast from last year for 2023 total revenues lined up with the actual figure. Yes, you read right, our forecast was just half a percentage point off from what the actual number proved to be! And going back further than that, the average variance from 2019 to 2023 for our forecasts for 2023 streaming revenues was just 6% from the actual figure. So, hopefully, that will give you some confidence that we know what we’re talking about 

With that little flex out of the way, onto this year’s edition…

2023 was a positive year for the global recorded music market. Crucially, it was a year in which the industry demonstrated its ability to diversify revenue growth with strong performance across not only streaming, but also physical, performance and expanded rights. Streaming remains the beating heart of revenue and will remain so for the forecast period covered in the report, but it now exists as one part of a robust, diversified revenue portfolio. The strong growth in 2023 should not be taken lightly. It came against the backdrop of uncertainty in the wider global economy and geo-political turmoil. What is more, subscriber growth continued at a good pace, despite the first wave of major price increases in the history of music subscriptions.

All these factors point to a recorded music market that has demonstrated its inherent consumer appeal, even in challenging times. 

However, it would be wrong to assume that this is an industry without its fair share of challenges. The proliferation of new artists with the democratisation of the means of production and distribution has put the industry’s ecosystem under a level of strain it was not designed for. Bigger artists aren’t getting as big as they once were (the reality distortion field that is Taylor Swift aside) and smaller artists are struggling to make streaming pennies add up. Meanwhile, everyone is struggling to cut through and DSPs, social platforms and rightsholders are bickering over how much music is worth. All of these factors of course, are not isolated events. They are inter-dependent and represent the birthing of a new era for the industry. A coming bifurcation of the industry between the traditional streaming-centred business on one side, and the continued rise of a more social and fan-focused business on the other. And we’ve got a number for that. In fact, we’ve got a lot of numbers for that, in the shape our first ever bifurcation forecast in the report.

We have also for the first time forecasted expanded rights, which along with our non-DSP and physical formats forecasts, mean that we also have a fan economy forecast, to help paint a picture of what tomorrow’s, transformed music business will look like. 

When you add these together with all the other components of the recorded music business, music industry revenues will reach $100 billion by 2031 in retail terms. Recorded music growth will be defined by strong performance across most formats, however streaming will add most revenue between 2023 and 2031 to reach three quarters of all revenues. Global music subscribers hit 737.9 million in 2023, adding more subscribers than in 2022. Music subscribers will break the one billion mark in 2027 and continue to grow, driven by Global South markets.

One of the key themes in the report, as reflected by its title, is the rise of the Global South. Global South markets will drive a growing share of growth, especially in user terms, though western markets will still dominate global revenues due to higher ARPU. Perhaps most significantly of all, China will become the second largest recorded music market by 2031. The US will remain the top subscription revenue market in 2031 due to high ARPU, but China will become second due to subscriber growth.

ARPU – it’s not just about price

With streaming being the majority of revenues, now and by 2031, ARPU is fast becoming the music industry’s key metric. Indeed, one of the key conversation points around streaming is price increases and their ARPU impact. Unfortunately, it is not as simple as forecasting forward an annual average price, much as we would like it to be, because it would make our job much easier if we could just say ‘we’re assuming an average of x%  

price increase across the period’. But we’d be letting our clients down if we did that, because ARPU does not work in such a simplistic way. 

It is instead shaped by: 1) price; 2) product mix; 3) free trials; 4) churn; 5) retention; 6) regions. 

One of the most important, and sadly too often overlooked, components of ARPU is average subscriber months (ASM) i.e., how many months a year an average subscriber is subscribed. In a fast-growing market, ASM is lower as many of the subscribers at the end of the year were not subscribers at the start of the year. The inverse is true of mature markets. 

Price increases have a direct impact on ASM because they affect retention (i.e., more people are likely to churn because of higher prices) and acquisition (i.e., fewer people are likely to subscribe because of higher prices). What is more, price increases have not had an equally proportionate impact on different tiers. Because price increases are often applied in full dollar amounts, the difference between cheaper tiers (e.g., Student Plan) and standard premium is narrowing, making those lower tiers less appealing.

Global ARPU is also shaped by regional shifts. For example, the price can go up by exactly the same proportion in Asia Pacific as North America, but if the former adds more subscribers than the latter, its overall lower average ARPU will pull down global ARPU. 

This is why MIDiA’s ARPU model considers all these factors, as well as the potential impact of ‘super premium’. If we didn’t do this we’d end up with a bigger number, but not a better number.

If you like what you’ve seen so far, go check out the free summary report, and if you’re a client, go check out the full thing!

Key Songs In The Life Of… Max LousadaMBW hands our turntable over to Max Lousada, Global CEO of Recorded Music at Warner Music Group
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Cruel World 2024Cruel World 2024 celebrated its third birthday at Brookside Park at Pasadena’s Rose Bowl.

Mother Nature hit last year’s festival as a lightning storm forced the show mid-way though Iggy Pop’s main-stage performance.  This year there were no natural disasters jeopardizing the event – just new wave massiveness and some big “firsts” that many didn’t think would ever happen. The lightning was all on stage – Duran Duran, Blondie, Simple Minds, Adam Ant, and two dozen other acts lit up Pasadena with their timeless musical energy.  With 3 stages and 30 or so bands spread across them, some hard decisions had to be made in order for even the most hardcore new wave fan to see all their faves on stage. 

Attendees are still talking about the “firsts” that they witnessed on the Cruel World stages.  Gary Numan was the initial act to deliver as he treated the fans to a rare performance of his 1979 debut album “The Pleasure Principle.” Numan strategically executed a very different and unique set compared to his Cruel World performance last year.  In typical Gary Numan fashion, he exploded on stage and poured out the energy and brilliance that you come to expect at his shows.

Cure and Siousxie fans clawed their way to the Sad Girls stage to witness a one-of-a-kind performance by Lol Tolhurst x Budgie – former drummers from The Cure and Siouxsie & The Banshees / The Creatures.  The dynamic drumming duo cunningly performed their distinctive and quirky set with pre-recorded vocals and a handful of guest vocalists.  It was a truly standout and innovative production that may never happen again.

Ministry - in what seemed to be the surprise festival highlight - took over the Outsiders stage.  This time, the Chicago wax-trackers did not deliver the expected guitar onslaught; instead the band assaulted fans with synth-pop.  Yes, it really happened! In a daring move, Al Jourgensen, along with a 13 piece band, performed music from the first two Ministry albums, 1983’s With Sympathy and 1986’s Twitch, which Jourgensen had vowed to never perform again in his lifetime. 

Tones On Tail ended the firsts with the only proper and stand alone Tones On Tail show since 1984.  Even with original bass player Glen Campling not taking part for reasons unknown, this was a big deal to fans of Bauhaus and its universe. With Daniel Ash, drummer Kevin Haskins and his daughter Diva Dompe on bass, the trio delivered the dark and gloomy goods - Go, Twist, Performance, Ok This Is The Pops, Lions and There’s Only One.

Goldenvoice has done an incredible job evolving and maturing the Cruel World Festival year after year.  Not only do they know their target audience, but the promoter has figured out how to open this niche up to a new generation of music fans by keeping the spirit alive with a modern touch.  The diverse lineups on the three stages now include a handful of contemporary artists that would please even the most critical Gen Xer. The pride of Nebraska - The Faint, and California Super-Group - Dream Car dazzled attendees at the Outsiders stage while New York Innovators - Interpol headlined the Sad Girls stage later that evening.

In classic Pasadena style, the weather was perfect for an all-day music festival.  The music started early and continued without a glitch – nearly 12 hours of non-stop performances.

The Motels kicked off my day.  Martha Davis took over the stage and proved she still has the voice and the heart that catapulted her to the top of the early 80’s L.A. music scene. The band delivered a powerful set with all the hits you would hope for - Where Do We Go From Here, Suddenly Last Summer, Take The L, andof course Only The Lonely.

Currently on their 50th anniversary tour, The Stranglers, who are down to just one original member, brought the audience to its feet early in the afternoon.  Original bassist Jean-Jacques Burnel is still going strong and continues to offer fans sweet pop songs with an early punk attitude like Golden Brown and Always The Sun. 

Dave Wakeling returned to Cruel World, this time with General Public.  Wakeling’s first visit was with The English Beat at the very first Cruel World Fest in 2022.  These days, it seems that the band names and the songs are interchangeable, but the hits are consistent - Never You Done That, Tenderness, Mirror In The Bathroom, and Save It For Later.

Following the secret Viper Room warm up show as “Blood Brothers UK” that kicked off their recent leg of their 2024 tour, The Mission UK reminded fans of their power to mix the dark moods of early ‘80s goth with colorful melodies, proving they are just as good today as they were 30 years ago.  The post-punk innovators retuned to Southern California and delivered a high-energy set featuring crowd pleasers such Tower of Strength, Severina, Wasteland and Deliverance.

In a rare daylight performance, The Jesus And Mary Chain dazzled the fans with their unique blend of pop hooks and shattering feedback.  Despite equipment problems that brought on some strong sibling stares, the Scottish bothers Reid poured out their hearts and the hits - Happy When It Rains, Head On, Some Candy Talking, In A Hole and Just Like Honey.

Simple Minds took the stage in their first US show in 6 years.  Vocalist Jim Kerr’s performance and energy just got bigger and better as the show went on.  At one point Kerr yelled out, “We don’t want to go home.”  Waterfront, Promised You A Miracle, Sanctify Yourself, and Alive & Kicking were some of the highlights in their set.

Adam Ant, who was originally scheduled to play at last year’s festival but cancelled shortly before the event, was one of the day’s most anticipated performers.  Ant looked ageless and delivered a blistering set that covered his time with both Adam and the Ants and his illustrious solo career - Ant Music, Stand And Deliver, Vive Le Rock, Friend Or Foe, Goody Two Shoes, and Prince Charming.

In a rare West Coast appearance, Soft Cell, consisting of Marc Almond and sadly – due to health reasons - without fellow bandmate and fellow founding member Dave Ball dazzled the Cruel World crowd just as the sun was dropping.  Soft Cell was the first act to take advantage of extravagant stage lighting and strong pre-filmed elements, taking the festival to a new level of visual excitement.  Bringing their dirty and dingy New York ‘80s feel to the stage, the band delivered some of Soft Cell’s most iconic songs, including Memorabilia, Seedy Films, and Sex Dwarf.

Hailing from Manhattan, NY, Interpol closed out the Sad Girls stage.  Some consider the band to be a bit too contemporary for the annual gloom fest, but the band’s set proved the influence and staying power of the ‘80s post-punk era.  The band delivered a flawless set both musically and visually that included Narc, My Desire, Obstacle 1, Evil, PDA and Slow Hands.  Thanks to the genius of Goldenvoice, Interpol finally gained their rightful place in the allegiance of dark and gothic music legends by playing The Cruel World Festival.

Blondie also made their triumphant return to Cruel World.  Debbie Harry looked stunning in her shimmering outfit and classic dark sunglasses, wowing the crowd as only she can do.

Harry exploded on stage with her super solid bandmates and solid gold hits.  Drummer Clem Burke and bass player Glenn Matlock drove the beat through classics like One Way Or Another, Rapture, Heart Of Glass, and Hanging On The Telephone. 

Pasadena lit up as Duran Duran took to the stage.  Many considered the band to be a bit of a risky headliner for the massive dark wavers in attendance.  But in classic Duran Duran foresight, the Birmingham boys opened their set with The Chaffeur – arguably the band’s darkest and gloomiest of their hits – a genius move.  The band delivered a brilliant set including just about every song a hard core “Duranie” would have on their wish list - Wild Boys, Hungry Like The Wolf, Save A Prayer, Notorious, Careless Memories, A View To A Kill, New Moon On Monday, The Reflex, Girls On Film and Rio.

If anything, the Cruel World Festival proves that new wave and post-punk was not just a fad…the music that was created in the 1980’s has impacted the lives of so many and continues to influence bands of today.  Cruel World 2025?  Absolutely!  Vegas is probably already taking bets. 

The post Cruel World 2024 first appeared on Music Connection Magazine.

Warner Music to expand into Lagos with its first fully-owned office in NigeriaCompany met with government officials in Nigeria's capital, Abuja last week and outlined plans to establish a creative hub in Lagos
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MLC is up for re-designation, and you have until May 29th to be heardThe Music Modernization Act (MMA) requires that the US Office of Copyright review the Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC) designation as the sole conduit of digital music royalties to songwriters and. Continue reading
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Just 2 days left to pre-register a .MUSIC domain freeTime is running out before the May 24th deadline to pre-register a .MUSIC domain when up to one million domains can be registered for free.....
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How Columbia University’s 89.9 FM found Radio’s ‘lost script’ [Fred Jacobs]Live campus radio coverage of recent protests proves that Gen Z is ready to reinvent broadcast radio if the current gatekeepers let them.....
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Save The Date: MBW presents the Music Business UK Awards in London, November 5The event will once again celebrate the best examples of A&R and talent development in the UK market, while recognising standout artist/songwriter management
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Justin Timberlake at the Kia ForumAs soon as I entered the Kia Forum on Friday, the energy felt different. Maybe it was the DJ hyping up the crowd with 90s tunes or the giddy rumbling of people. Chatting about Justin Timberlake and reminiscing about those NSYNC days. Whatever the case is, it was obvious we were in store for a good time.

As is now the norm for more established acts, no opener for Timberlake's The Forgot Tomorrow World Tour. A giant video introduction of the performer appeared on stage teasing his appearance around 9 pm. The crowd of course screamed with anticipation. From the stage, Timberlake appeared to the sounds of "No Angels," the second single from his recent sixth studio album, Everything I Thought It Was. 

Accompanying him was his backing band, The Tennessee Kids -- composed of three background vocalists, a horns section, his band and dancers. The big symphonic production brightened the room. The chemistry between him and his team was undeniable. It was like we were watching lifelong friends having fun onstage, everyone in sync with the beat of the music. Especially during the performances of "Imagination" and "Technicolor," the venue came alive with harmonic R&B melodies and theatrical elements.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA - APRIL 29: Justin Timberlake performs onstage during his "The Forget Tomorrow" world tour at Rogers Arena on April 29, 2024 in Vancouver, British Columbia. (Photo by Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for Live Nation)

Even with the stage full of performers, all eyes were on Timberlake. As he stole the show with his quick dance moves, soulful singing and charismatic humor. Timberlake has been in the business since he was 11 and has developed into quite a versatile performer. He knows his strengths and weaknesses when it comes to his vocal capabilities.

The two-hour-plus performance featured tracks from his entire discography including "Señorita" from his debut Justified to mega-hits like "SexyBack" from FutureSex/LoveSounds. 

Keeping things interesting, towards the end of the show he made his way dancing and singing through the audience to a smaller stage at the end of the venue floor where he performed eight songs including acoustic versions of “Selfish,” and “What Goes Around … Comes Around.” 

For the grand finale, he kept everyone at the edge of their seats as he appeared harnessed on atop a floating platform for the last song of the night “Mirrors.” The crowd cheered in amazement as he cruised across the Kia Forum one last time.

Photo Credit: Kevin Mazur

For more on Justin Timberlake, vist justintimberlake.comThe post Justin Timberlake at the Kia Forum first appeared on Music Connection Magazine.

AI music generator Suno raises $125m, valuing company at $500m (report)"It’s very early days, but 10 million people have already made music using Suno," said Suno Co-Founder and CEO Mikey Shulman
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Billie Eilish used TikTok Fan Spotlight, and now all musicians canBillie Eilish was the first to use TikTok’s new free ‘Fan Spotlight’ feature, and now every musician can. Fan Spotlight enables musicians to pin up to five fan-created videos to. Continue reading
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Questions musicians need to answer when meeting with a marketing teamMusic Biz Weekly co-host Jay Gilbert recently hosted a panel at the Music Biz conference. One of the questions he asked the panelists was: "When you first sit down with the artist and/or manager, what questions do you typically ask?".....
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Check out a Free Music Promotion Masterclass with Groover & SymphonicUnlock the secrets of using modern music marketing techniques to cut through the noise using expert promotion strategies from Groover and Symphonic. by Randi Zimmerman from Symphonic Feeling lost in. Continue reading
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